運用系統動態觀點建構作戰決策支援模型之研究：以臺海突圍作戰為例
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| 摘要 近年來中國解放軍不停歇的軍事演習及不間斷的軍機擾臺，已證明臺灣未來遭受共軍實施圍島封鎖的可能性已然大幅提升，故如何在可能的突圍作戰中制敵機先及突圍自救，將成為國軍後續應當重視的必要課題。然而，臺海的突圍作戰係屬制海權與制空權的爭奪，涉及多維度與跨軍種間的作戰形態，因此，本研究運用美軍所提之多領域作戰概念(Multi-domain operations)來描述臺海突圍作戰時的戰場動態，並以系統動態學描述空中戰機及水面上戰艦等多種兵力進行突圍作戰的交戰場景，當中亦運用Armstrong (2003)模型來簡化交戰雙方的兵力估算。最後，模擬不同戰場環境及戰術策略的分析與兵力估算，並歸結可能較佳的戰術方案。
關鍵字：決策支援系統、多領域作戰、Armstrong模型、系統動態學。 ABSTRACT In recent years, the Chinese People's Liberation Army's non-stop military exercises and non-stop military aircraft disrupting Taiwan have proven that the possibility of Taiwan being encircled and blocked by the Communist army in the future has greatly increased. Therefore, how to defeat enemy aircraft and break out to save itself in a possible breakout operation will become a necessary issue that the national army should pay attention to in the future. However, the breakout operation in the Taiwan Strait is a battle for sea and air control involving multi-dimensional and cross-service combat forms. Therefore, this study uses the multi-domain operations concept (Multi domain operations) proposed by the US military to describe the battlefield dynamics during the breakout operation in the Taiwan Strait. and uses system dynamics to describe the battle scenario in which multiple forces such as air fighters and surface warships conduct breakout operations. The Armstrong (2003) model is also used to simplify the force estimation of both warring parties. Finally, simulate the analysis and troop strength estimation of different battlefield environments and tactical strategies, and summarize possible better tactical plans. KEYWORDS: Decision Support System (DSS); Multi-Domain Operations; Armstrong Model; System Dynamics. |