國防運輸新維度：利用預測模型優化松山至金門航線的資源分配
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| 摘要 春節期間 C-130 運輸機從松山至金門的航線面臨著乘客量預測的挑戰，此航線主要服務於國防機關、軍事學校及三軍人員及其眷屬。透過分析 2015 年至 2024 年間春節搭機資料，共 39 筆資料，旨在利用指數平滑法、迴歸分析法和灰色理論模型， 對未來乘客量進行預測。此預測有助於提前規劃機票發放、運輸架次、接駁車派遣 及油料準備等，以期達到更高的運輸效率和準確性。通過將 2024 年的預測數據與實 際搭乘人數比較，目的是確定最合適的預測方程式，並對2025 年的乘客運量進行預測，為後續的運輸任務準備提供科學依據。
關鍵字：指數平滑法，迴歸分析法，灰色理論預測模型。 ABSTRACT The C-130 transport aircraft route from Songshan to Kinmen encounters forecasting challenges for passenger volumes during the Lunar New Year, catering primarily to defense institutions, military academies, and members of the armed forces along with their families. Analyzing data from 2015 to 2024, encompassing 39 instances of Lunar New Year travel, this study aims to employ exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and grey theory models for future passenger volume predictions. These predictions are vital for early planning in ticket issuance, flight scheduling, shuttle services, and fuel provisioning, thereby enhancing transportation efficiency and precision. By comparing the predictive data for 2024 with actual passenger figures, the objective is to ascertain the most accurate forecasting model and project passenger volumes for 2025, thus offering a scientific foundation for planning future transportation tasks. KEYWORDS: Exponential Smoothing; Regression Analysis; Grey Theory Prediction Model. |