醫院建築成本之最佳預估參數分析
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摘要 當一個新建的醫院建築工程標案發包時,無論是負責主辦的機關之預算編列,或是負責施工的營造公司在參與投標前的準備,皆蘊含著成本預算誤差的風險,因此,在營建成本推估過程中,須謹慎評估各種可能的因素,以確保成本估算的準確性和可靠性。而過去的概估方式,最普遍的方法大多採用經驗法則,由經驗來假設並計算出大約之材料數量,並乘以適當之單價而求出工程造價,但這樣的方式容易受到人為因素的影響,而造成預期利潤的錯誤評估,如果營建成本被低估,可能導致項目進行過程中資金不足,影響工程的品質和安全性,形成需要額外籌措資金或影響項目進度的危機。本研究以醫院建築工程為例,將建築成本分為基礎工程、結構體工程、外牆裝修工程、門窗工程及地上層總額 5 個推估模組,並利用迴歸方程式進行推估模組之驗證,配合過去合理發包價格作為基準成本,加以計算推估成本之標準誤差值,最後再分析選擇推估模組中最準確之指標因子為最佳預估參數。 研究結果得知醫院建築的基礎工程成本最佳預估參數為車位數,結構體工程成本最佳預估參數為病床位數,外牆裝修工程成本最佳預估參數為建築面積,門窗工程成本及地上層總額成本最佳預估參數皆為地上層面積。綜上所述,本研究建置之醫院建築成本推估,可利用車位數、病床位數、建築面積及地上層面積四項參數加以快速又準確的預估醫院建案之建築成本,以供決策者可以合理的訂立利潤,讓資金調度可以更有效的分配。 關鍵字:建築工程標案、建築成本預估、推估模組、預估參數。 ABSTRACT When a new hospital construction project is tendered, there exists risk of cost, budge deviation whether the budget preparation of the organization responsible for the project or the preparation of the construction company before participating in the bidding. Therefore, during the construction cost estimation process, various possible factors must be evaluated carefully to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the cost estimation. In the past, the most common method of estimating used empirical rules, assuming and calculating the approximate quantity of materials based on experience, and then multiplying by the appropriate unit price to obtain the project cost. However, this method is easily affected by human factors. This leads to incorrect assessment of expected profits. If construction costs are underestimated, it may lead to insufficient funds during the project, affecting the quality and safety of the project, and creating a crisis that requires additional funds or affects the progress of the project. KEYWORDS: Construction Project Bid; Construction Cost Estimation; Estimation Module; Estimation Parameters. |