摘要

因應近年來共機擾臺頻次提升及日益嚴峻的敵情威脅，國軍應以前瞻的思維來規劃國防事務，以有限的國防預算發揮資源效益最大化。因此，本研究以空軍某型現役戰機為研究對象，模擬應對共機擾臺時，我空軍派遣戰機升空實施攔截的派飛架次及維持機隊運作戰力所需急缺器材預算之機隊運作全般作業，期望尋找最大化資源運用效益之政策管理模式。首先，本研究先探討該機隊運作之關鍵活動與核心變數，再運用系統動態學之觀點，經由過往文獻、領域專家經驗來找出關鍵變數間之因果關係，最後建立動態分析模型；接著，進一步以此模型進行政策分析與模擬，來探討不同政策（派飛需求架次及急缺器材預算滿足率）對機隊妥善率、運作成本及飛時成本之影響趨勢，其相關政策建議將於文內探討。

關鍵字：系統動態學、成本估算、機隊運作。

ABSTRACT

In response to the increasing frequency of Chinese military aircraft approaching Taiwan and the escalating threat posed by the enemy, the military should adopt a forward-looking approach to plan for national defense affairs and maximize the efficiency of resource utilization with limited defense budget. Therefore, this study focuses on a certain type of fighter jet in the Air Force and simulates the fleet's operational procedures for intercepting Chinese military aircraft approaching Taiwan, including the required number of flight sorties and the necessary urgent equipment budget to maintain the fleet's combat capability. The study aims to identify the optimal policy management mode to maximize the utilization of resources. Firstly, this study explores the key activities and core variables of the fleet's operations, and using a system dynamics perspective, identifies the causal relationships between the critical variables through literature review and expert experience. Finally, a dynamic analysis model is established. Secondly, this model is utilized to analyze and simulate different policies (such as the required number of flight sorties and the rate of urgent equipment budget fulfillment) to investigate their impact on the fleet's readiness rate, operational costs, and flying hour costs. Relevant policy recommendations will be discussed in the paper.

KEYWORDS:  System Dynamics; Cost Estimation, Flight management; Supply Chain Management (SCM).