摘要

美國海軍作戰部長吉爾代上將於2020年曾表示，中共很可能於2027年侵略臺灣，同時中共軍費近年來大量提升，其海軍亦發展快速，在2022年美國眾議院長裴洛事件時，中共企圖展現其封鎖臺灣之企圖及能力。我國為因應中共軍力威脅的升高，亦不斷強化自製及外購兩項武獲策略，以提升自我防衛能力。

在國艦國造計畫的推展中，巡防艦的自製計畫，卻因專家與決策者在群體決策上的意見不一，而導致全案延宕，故如何解決專家在群體決策上的問題，是個需要探究的議題。而在外購部分，在近年臺海局勢升溫的狀態，各國對我國軍售的限制可能放寛，故如何透過外購選擇所需之巡防艦及探討採購數量，同樣是個值得探討的議題。

本研究先以修正式模糊德菲法確認我國新一代巡防艦之設計準則架構，在運用Shannon Entropy權重及MULTIMOORA此一穩健性較佳的多準則決策方法，作為方案優劣排序的方法。除輔助決策者決策外，也提供高穩健性之方案優劣結果。

關鍵字：群體決策、綜合性權重、MULTIMOORA、穩健性。

ABSTRACT

The U.S. Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gilday said it in 2020, that is the CCP may invade Taiwan in 2027, and this time point is also known as the "Gillday’s Window". After the event of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan in 2020, the CCP also demonstrated its attempt and ability to Choke Taiwan. In response to the increasing threat of the CCP’s military power, Taiwan has also adopted two strategies to enhance self-defense power. One way was indigenous frigates, and the other way was military purchase.

However, in the case of the indigenous frigates, due to the disagreement between experts and decision-makers on group decision-making, the whole project was delayed. Therefore, how to solve the problem of group decision-making is an issue that needs to be explored. Because the relationship between the Taiwan and CCP had been serious in recent years, NATO and US may relax the restrictions for Taiwan military purchase. At that time, how to select the required frigates and calculate the purchase quantity through military purchase will become an issue.

This study first used the modified fuzzy Delphi method to confirm the design criteria framework of new generational frigates, and then used a hybrid weight, Shannon Entropy. And using a method of high robustness , MULTIMOORA for ranking the alternative. In addition to assist the decision-making, also provide highly robustness results of ranking of the alternative.

KEYWORDS: Group Decision-Making; Hybrid Weight; MULTIMOORA; Robustness.