陸軍採購作業供需系統動態模式建構

A System Dynamics Model for Army Procurement Supply and Demand

劉培林、方崇懿、李庭閣、李佩縈
P. L. Liu, C.Y. Fang, T. K. Lee and P. Y. Lee

國防大學 管理學院資源管理及決策研究所


摘要

隨著國防預算逐年攀升及各項政策的推行,導致武器裝備、官兵生活設施及營舍修繕等採購需求量增加,然而國軍近年在人事精簡政策實施後,人力大幅裁減,使得現有人員負擔及業務加重,進而影響採購品質及工作與任務的推行。

影響陸軍採購作業供需之因素甚多,彼此互相影響且具有環環相扣的因果關係。本研究運用系統動態學建構陸軍採購作業供需模型,藉由情境與政策變數之調整(包括採購案件數,平均招訂作業時間及每日可工作時數),模擬分析對陸軍採購作業各階段,包括計評、招訂、履驗階段供需比及採購完成率的影響,據以提出改善建議,供決策單位參考。

關鍵字:政府採購、採購人員、採購品質、系統動態學。

ABSTRACT

    With the increase of defense budget year by year and the implementation of various policies, the demand for procurement of weapons and equipment, living facilities for officers and soldiers, and camp repairs has increased. Business increases, which in turn affects the quality of procurement and the implementation of work and tasks.

  There are many factors that affect the supply and demand of Army procurement operations, which affect each other and have a causal relationship. This study uses system dynamics to construct a supply and demand model for army procurement operations. By adjusting for situational and policy variables (including the number of procurement cases, average recruitment operation time, and available working hours per day), it simulates and analyzes the effects of various stages of army procurement operations. Including the impact of the supply-demand ratio and the procurement completion rate in the evaluation, recruitment, and inspection stages, and put forward improvement suggestions for reference by decision-making units.

KEYWORDS: Government Procurement; Procurement Personnel; Procurement Quality; System Dynamics