植基於多準則決策分析軍事智慧化應用辨識評選之研究

A Study on the Identification Selection Model of Intellectualized Military Application Based on MCDM

張珈進、張明瀚
C. C. Chang and M. H. Chang

國防大學 資源管理及決策研究所


摘要

近年來人工智慧技術在軍事、工程、經濟及醫療等跨領域的整合,已成為產業升級與自主技術發展的先驅或關鍵。因此,本研究係聚焦於國防產業導入人工智慧決策模式之建構,探討AI投資項目的決策評選問題,希冀能協助並提升國軍在AI軍事應用與投資上,展現決策效能。 首先,藉由文獻探討及專家訪談確立AI軍事應用領域投資的評估指標;接續運用DEMATEL及DANP法來分析評選指標間的影響關係與權重;最後,再利用SAW及ELECTRE II法建立AI軍事應用領域方案優序。 研究結果顯示,AI軍事應用領域以「主觀效能」為最核心之構面,以「技術獲取不確定性」、「防衛戰力整合性」及「科技人才成本」為最關鍵之決策評估準則;產、官、學各方專家均認為軍事AI的「網路安全攻防」與「戰場威脅監控與情境感知」是未來AI軍事應用中,最適合臺灣發展的技術應用方向。

關鍵字:人工智慧、軍事科技、多準則決策、不確定型決策、目標規劃。

ABSTRACT

Artificial Intelligence has been integrated within military, engineering, economics, and medical treatment, to become the pioneer of industrial upgrading and technology development. The study thus focuses on how the decision-making pattern of AI is constructed and imported into the military industry, scrutinizing the selection of the investment of AI. Then helping Taiwan military improve the investment and the application of AI in the military, showing decisive effectiveness. Within the first stage, the indicators of the investment of the application of AI in the military initially are affirmed through literature and expert interview, then to select the weighs of indicators and the effective relations by the analysis of DEMATEL and DANP. At last, adopting SAW and ELECTRE II to build the priority of the alternatives of AI application in the military. The results demonstrate that “Subjective Effectiveness” is the core facet, and “Uncertainty of Technology Acquisition”, “Integration of Defense Capability” and “Cost of Scientific and Technological Talents” are the key decision-making evaluation criteria; the experts from industry, government, and academia recognize “Cybersecurity” and “Threat Monitoring and Situational Awareness” are the most appropriate field within military AI applications for Taiwan.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Military Technology, Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Decision Making under Uncertainty, Goal Programming.