空中儎具執行反潛作戰具有高效益與低風險的優點，主因是多數潛艦並未配備防空飛彈，對空中儎具不構成威脅。然而，空中反潛反潛作業存在諸多不確定性因素，如偵測誤差、目標位置估算誤差、投雷精準度誤差、魚雷聲納誤差以及目標潛艦迴避運動之不可預測性等，對投雷落水點與目標潛艦位置產生隨機性偏移。本研究針對魚雷相對於潛艦位置之隨機偏移與速率變化，以蒙地卡羅模擬方法進行2000次模擬，對魚雷命中率與魚雷落水位置以及潛艦迴避速率呈現之變化進行分析。

The advantage with high effectiveness and low risk of air ASW is due to the most of submarines are incapable of threatening the air ASW platform in terms of lack of anti-air weapons. Even so, ASW helicopter is still unable to overcome attack errors of torpedo causing by the uncertain situations in ASW operation. These Errors include detection, position estimate, water entry precision of torpedo, torpedo sonar detection, and the unpredictable of submarine evasive action, etc. The randomness factor is hard to be avoided from air-drop torpedo scenario. In this study, Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate (2000 runs) a given scenario for analysis of the relationship of torpedo hit probability in association with the position of torpedo water-entry and submarine evasive speed.