摘要
隨著全球人口的不斷增加，以及近年來科技發展造成人們生活水準的大幅提升，造成人類對於產品的需求帶動了產業發展，而產業的發展不可避免會用各式化學物質，在台灣大多廠區與民宅間緩衝帶不足的前提下，若因操作不當或意外洩漏至大氣中，不僅會對廠區附近民眾的生命財產造成嚴重的損失，對於社會與環境同樣會造成相當大的衝擊。因此，預先進行毒化物災害風險之分析與評估，參考模擬分析結果制定適合之緊急應變計畫，有其急迫性與需求。
本研究將所開發之整合模式應用於某工業區之氯氣儲槽外洩事故上，以便探討利於擴散及最不利於擴散之洩漏情況對於二種不同層面（事故廠區、長距離傳輸）之毒氣擴散後果及其危害較大的風向可能造成之風險，一般可接受的風險為1×10-6而各風向的風險，利於擴散情況下，西南西風高於此標準，為不可接受之風險，需要盡快改善。
由整合模式與ALOHA比較之結果顯示，在模擬大量洩漏及風速非常低時， ALOHA軟體限制，結果可信度不高，但模擬時間短，適合緊急應變逃生。而整合模式可以控制模擬總時間與氣雲間隔，亦可得知廠區擴散情況，但模擬時間較長，適合建廠初期評估及疏散路線規劃。
關鍵字：整合模式、高斯擴散模式、GIS、CFD、FLACS、ALOHA、ICAM、風險分析、氯氣、儲槽外洩。
ABSTRACT
With the increasing global population, as well as technological development in recent years, resulting in significantly improved people living standards, caused human driven by demand for the products of the industrial development; however, it is inevitable to use any chemistries in industrial development. In Taiwan, most of the buffer zones between plant and houses premise, if with improper operation or accidentally release gases into the atmosphere, it will not only cause severe damages to people’s live and properties around the plant, but also lead a massive impact to the society and the environment. Therefore, it has an urgent need to make the analysis and evaluation of toxic chemicals disaster, and take the simulation analysis results as areference to formulate an appropriate emergency respond in advance.
This research developed an integrated model applied to an industrial zone on the chlorine tank leak accident, in order to explore the most conducive diffusion and the most unfavorable diffusion for two kinds of different levels (plant accident, long-distance transmission) of gas diffusion consequences and the risks may caused by the winds from any directions. Generally, the acceptable risk is 1×10-6; under the consequences of conducive proliferation, for the risks of any wind direction, the west southwest wind is above this standard, this is the risk which is not acceptable, so it should be improved as soon as possible.
From the results of integrated model and ALOHA showed that, with the simulation of a large gas leakage and low wind speed, due to the software limitation of ALOHA, credibility is not high; on the other hand, the shorter the simulation time is, the easier to survive. Integrated mode not only could control the total simulation time and the gas interval, but also the circumstances of gas spread in the plant, but with the longer simulation time, it is suitable for the construction of the initial assessment and evacuation route planning.
Keywords: Integrated Model; Gaussian Dispersion Model; GIS; CFD; FLACS; ALOHA; ICAM; Risk Analysis; Chlorine; Storage Tank Leakage
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