摘要
基礎設施在維持都市系統運作上扮演極為關鍵的角色，甚至某些關鍵基礎設施對國家社會極為重要，一旦失效對社會與經濟的衝擊將造成重大影響；而供電系統為其他基礎設施系統的主要動力來源，若供電系統失效其衝擊後果將十分嚴重，甚至可能造成骨牌效應，擴大影響其他設施系統。本文擬以災害極端情境為外力，探討台灣北部地區供電系統在面對不同災害威脅下的系統運作情形。藉由極端事件情境設定與系統的實際供需運作，運用系統分析方法，評估供電系統可能面對的衝擊與後果，提供管理單位減災參考運用。在用電需求上亦採用年度最大負載情形，進行供電系統的衝擊分析。本文共完成四種極端情境設定（地震災害、颱風災害、系統供電危機、與人為攻擊等極端情境）作為災害外力想定下，進行北部供電系統之災害衝擊評估與可能後果分析。
關鍵字：關鍵基礎設施、供電系統、災害衝擊分析、極端情境。
ABSTRACT
Infrastructures play an essential role in the operation of a dynamic urban system. Some critical infrastructure’s failure may cause remarkable social and economic impact, even influence normal operation of government. The power system provides main driving energy for other infrastructure systems. If a power system is failure, the consequence may cause the some infrastructure systems, which are dependent on the power system, lose power and malfunction. Furthermore, it may cause a domino effect on other facilities and systems to expand its influence. This study considers four extreme scenarios as the external force to evaluate the power system in northern Taiwan for disaster impact analysis. Though the assessment of these extreme events to find out the possible impacts and consequences of the power system in northern Taiwan. The four extreme scenarios are earthquake, typhoon, crisis of power supply and manmade terrorist attack cases. The results can provide to the Taiwan Power Co. for developing the mitigation strategy as a reference.
Keywords: Critical infrastructure; Power system; Disaster impact analysis; Extreme scenarios
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