摘要
我國由於地處易致災區，過去對災害防救科技研發相當重視，亦投入相當多資源進行應用開發。然而過去我國在防災科技之應用上，多偏向針對現有災防體系的問題發展規劃之反應式思維，但在未來重大自然與社經環境趨勢改變之下，要如何將現有災防體系的科研發展規劃從反應式思維，轉變為積極預應式思維，使整體災防科研政策規劃朝向以未來防災需求為導向，以有效運用資源投入關鍵技術研發的方向，以使科研應用於降低未來新興災害風險。因此本研究檢視美國、英國與世界經濟論壇等國家與國際組織採取的前瞻個案，分析其相關之作法與成果，藉由洞察國外之經驗作法，進而建議我國災害防救科研規劃如何納入前瞻長期視角之流程與方法。
關鍵字：災害防救、前瞻規劃、長遠視角、情境分析。
ABSTRACT
The naturalgeographical location of Taiwan is prone todisasters, and hence considerable resources have been invested for disaster reduction technology application. However, in the past, the planning of disaster prevention technology lies mostly on reactive mode based on the existing disaster problems, but under the major natural and socio-economic environmental trends, how to transform to a more proactive mode, and help the whole policy planning of disaster reduction oriented towardsmore future emerging needs of disaster reduction. Therefore, R&D resources can be more efficiently allocated for the investment of key technologies for future application in emerging disaster risk. In this study, foresight experiences from countries or international organizations such as United States, Great Britain and the World Economic Forum are reviewed, the design of the foresight process and the outcome thereof are analyzed.A proposed processfor integrating of long term perspective into the present planning process of disaster reduction R&D is suggested through the insight of the foreign experiences.
Keywords: Disaster Reduction; Foresight; Long-Term Perspective; Scenario analysis
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