摘要
2009年莫拉克颱風重創南台灣之後，隔年9月凡那比颱風侵台，在屏東縣來義鄉來義村所實施的預防性疏散撤離，成功地避免掉一場可能浩劫，受到各方的讚揚，成為後續實施預防性疏散撤離的樣板。盲目地依循發布的土石流預警所操作的預防性疏散撤離措施，在實施近2年後，陸續出現民眾反彈、公部門無力執行等的窘況，2012年8月的天秤颱風，預防性疏散撤離政策與成效，更受到部份民眾的質疑與挑戰。
本文在討論當大規模災害或緊急事故發生時，在瞬間湧入的壓力狀態下的災害決策行為反應，特別是在有土石流災害潛勢的威脅下，偏遠山區聚落的避難疏散撤離決策。對於全球氣候變遷下的極端氣候環境，台灣地區將無法免除於大規模或複合型的災害境況，本研究的結論並非否定預防性疏散撤離的重要性，但如何在有限的資源與資訊下，就不同避難弱勢地區的居民，提出多元的應災對策，強化其自主避災能力，以避免不必要的傷亡意外發生，才是本研究的目的。
關鍵字：災害風險、決策品質、預防性疏散撤離。
ABSTRACT
Morakot Typhoon resulted in terrible damages in southern Taiwan, and next year Fanapi Typhoon also resulted in serious losses in southern and eastern Taiwan. At the time, the preventive evacuation implemented by Lai-Yi village of Ping-Tung county had successfully prevented a possible terrible disaster from happening. Such a behavior had become a good example for subsequently implemented prevention evacuation. However, Tembin Typhoon attacked south Taiwan in August, 2012. the policy and effect regarding its prevention evacuation are doubted by many villagers.
The research will address the social and behavioral aspects of sudden onset collective stress conditions typically referred to as mass emergencies or disasters. It will focus on the damage types in remote area under large scale disaster scenarios and the refuge behavior of local residents with the same experience. The purpose of this research is to propose some useful emergency measures for the residents living in disadvantaged areas to avoid the unnecessary damages incurs.
Keywords: Disaster Risk; Decision Quality; Preventive Evacuation
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