摘要
台灣附近海域之高密度海上交通與海洋環境成為中度風險環境，海難事故年均超過300件，使得海上救難的效率益形重要。海難發生時的天候通常不佳，使得影響海上救難的最大因素之一為到達現場的遲到時間。本研究之目的係針對海上救難船艦建立搜索模擬模型並以之分析搜救單位因天候所造成遲到時間對搜索效能之影響；海域以台灣東部屬於黑潮體系的外海為研究範圍。以蒙地卡羅方法(Monte Carlo method)為建模主體，相關子模型包括：「落海目標之漂浮位移」、「搜索」、「搜救船艦偵測裁判」、「統計」等五項。海流的流向流速則以機率分配模擬環境行為與變異量。本研究主要限制為搜救之船艦數量以單船為主，在東岸海域進行72小時海上救難之模擬。
關鍵字：蒙地卡羅模擬法(Monte Carlo method)、海上搜索、偵測率、遲到時間、模型、機率分配。
ABSTRACT
The highdensityof maritime trafficandthe marine environmenthave madethesea areanear Taiwan a moderateriskenvironment, More than an average of 300 shipwrecks annually, has made the efficiency of sea rescuing increasinglyimportant. Shipwreck usually occurswhentheweatherisa poor causing time delay of the rescue platform as one of the major factors in terms of successful Search And Rescue (SAR) task. The purposeofthis studyisto establish a simulation model on the rescue vessels and analyze the effect on the late timing of the rescue unit caused by bad weather. This study is mainly on the Kuroshio system sea area on the eastern side of Taiwan. With Monte Carlo method for the main modeling,relevant sub-modelsinclude:「Floating targets’displacement」、「Search」、「Search and rescue shipdetectionreferee」and「Statistics」. The behavior of the flow velocityofthecurrent is represented bythe normal probability distribution. The mainlimitation of this study is to simulate single ship’s SAR capability and with 72 hour time limit.
Keywords: Monte Carlo; Maritime Search; Detection Rate; Delaytime; Model; Probability Distribution
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