摘要
基礎設施在維持都市動態系統中扮演極為關鍵的角色，甚至某些關鍵基礎設施對國家社會極為重要，一旦失效對社會與經濟的衝擊將造成重大影響。本文探討系統相依性分析方法，其主要目的係找出該系統中的關鍵設施要素，亦即該設施單元失效會造成整體系統的重大衝擊後果。以系統概念建構具回饋性之系統相互關聯性方法，目的在辨識系統面臨一般性威脅之脆弱度，及考量相依性前提下失效因子之關鍵程度。然而，往往難以準確量化方式評估基礎設施因災害而失效所衍生之系統衝擊，是以本研究利用準量化之感受性模型概念，分析單一設施及系統受衝擊之因果關係，建立衝擊矩陣以釐清基礎設施之角色定位。並以臺灣某產業園區為案例探討確認模式之可行性，分析結果有助於業管單位配置有限資源於系統要素，進一步有效防護關鍵基礎設施以維持社會運作。
關鍵字：關鍵基礎設施、相依性、感受性模型、衝擊矩陣
ABSTRACT
Infrastructures are essential to not only dynamic urban operations, but socioeconomic vulnerability in a country. A critical infrastructure failure causes remarkable influences to daily life. This study proposes a model to analyze interdependencies between infrastructures for determining the critical factors significantly impacting operations of the system if it failed. The interdependency assessment is based on a feedback loop correlations and utilized to identify the system vulnerability as well as the importance in the system considering interdependencies. However, it is difficult to precisely examine the impact of disaster on serviceability of infrastructures. A semi-quantitative method, namely impact matrix derived from sensitivity model, is employed to explore the causalities in disaster impact chain and determine the role position of each infrastructure. A specific industrial park is used as the empirical study to evidence the feasibility of developed model. Analytical results assist authorities in allocating finite resources efficiently and protecting critical infrastructures to ensure the social operations.
Keywords: Critical infrastructure; Interdependency; Sensitivity model; Impact matrix
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