摘要
本研究探討影響台灣中小企業發生違約之因素，俾為銀行辦理中小企業授信風險控管與改善中小企業信評模型之參考，同時可提供投資人或債權人作決策之參考依據，使其能及早避開問題之中小企業。不同於過去相關文獻，本研究由企業內部的非財務構面著手，運用德菲法(Delphi Method)及層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process，AHP)探討影響台灣中小企業發生違約之非財務因素及其相對權重與優先次序，針對無法量化或無適合替代性量化指標之定性影響因素發展徵信或訪談人員評分問卷，以彌補財務資訊之不足。研究結果顯示，受訪專家最重視「負責人特質」構面，且一致認同「本業專業知識不足」、「經營理念模糊」、及「對所屬產業前景看法模糊」是影響中小企業發生違約之前三項關鍵因素。其次，「有使用現金卡的習慣」、「訂單青黃不濟」、及「研發或財務主管離職」等指標也受到相當的重視。最後，由於金融專家和輔導專家兩者專業領域有別，兩類專家在「相對程度」上對於某些影響因素的重視程度，確實存有不同看法。
關鍵字：中小企業、信用風險、層級分析法
ABSTRACT
This study attempts to probe the non-financial factor within enterprise. It uses Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP to study the effects of non-financial factor and corresponding relative weights and priority on Taiwan Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs). The results of this study would be a good reference to banks for the credit authorization and the credit evaluation model improvement for the SMEs in Taiwan. The results of this study exhibit that the interviewed experts regard the characteristics of enterprise owner as the most important factor. It has consensuses that the top three key factors of affecting the defaults of Taiwan SMEs are insufficient professional knowledge, ambiguous management mentality, and unclear concept of its enterprise vision. Further indices of the habit of using the cash card, discontinuity of sale order, and departures of RD head and Finance head are regarded very important too. Last but not least the finance experts do have different levels of importance from counselor experts on some key influential factors. It is due to that the two kinds of experts do have differences in professionalism.
Keywords: SMEs; Credit Risk; AHP
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