電力消費與分類部門經濟成長之因果關係：以台灣為例

CAUSALITY BETWEEN ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND SECTOR ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE CASE IN TAIWAN

　　本文利用Granger 因果關係與誤差修正模型，來探討台灣電力消費分別對實質國內生產毛額(GDP)與服務業實質國內生產毛額(Service GDP；SGDP)之間的因果關係，資料期間為1961至2007年。實證結果顯示，電力消費與GDP存在有雙向因果關係。這表示電力消費會直接影響經濟成長，而經濟成長會進一步刺激電力消費。然而SGDP對電力消費有單向因果關係。則表示電力節約政策可以實施，對服務業經濟成長不會有不良影響。

　　The Granger causality and error correction method were applied on 1961-2007 data for Taiwan to examine causality between electricity consumption and, respectively, GDP and service GDP (SGDP). The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and GDP. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also simulates further electricity consumption. However, unidirectional causality runs from SGDP to electricity consumption. Thus, electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating service sector economic side effects.