都市地區火災風險分區劃設方法之研究

A Delineation of Fire Risk Zones by Urban Blocks

林峰田 Feng-Tyan Lin 1 、蔣得心 Te-Hsin Chiang 2 、施邦築 Ban-Jwu Shih 3

1 國立台灣大學建築與城鄉研究所

Graduate Institute of Building and Planning, National Taiwan University

2 國家災害防救科技中心

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

3 國立台北科技大學土木系暨國家災害防救科技中心體系與政策組

Department of Civil and Engineering , National Taipei University of Technology & Management System Division, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction

摘要

火災是都市地區中最為頻繁的人為災害之一，存在著極高的不確定性，每年動輒損失幾十億，對整個社會成本消耗與影響皆甚驚人。本研究從都市整體角度，以「風險」之概念結合過去危險度及災因分析之相關研究，以周邊環境、建物屬性、土地使用等因素為評估指標，建構一個以都市街廓為評估尺度之都市地區火災風險評估模式，並以實證地區風險評估結果配合地理資訊系統，分為三層級劃設火災風險區。劃設結果經問卷訪談判定比對，火災發生機率在實務準確度上達 83.3 ％，在火災損失部分則有 75 ％。研究成果可作為都市防災、都市更新、社區總體營造與消防演習等火災防減災相關規劃與行動政策研擬之參考，以期提升都市整體防火安全能力。

 關鍵字： 火災風險評估、火災損失、風險分區、地理資訊系統

Abstract

Frequent man-made hazards, especially in the cases of urban fires, with its high uncertainty, have caused serious loss and strong impact on the society. With the concept of risk, this research discusses how to manage fire hazard in community scale concerning surrounding environments, building attributes, land use, etc. and proposes an evaluation method to assess fire risk degree in terms of urban blocks. We analyze fire risks using GIS and divide the results into three equal ranks, namely high, medium and low risks, and get a fire risk zone map. The research finds that the estimation of fire probability in study area is 83.3% and fire loss is 75% similar to the evaluation results by firemen based on their daily experiences. The result of this research can be applied to local hazard mitigation planning, urban renewal projects, and to enhance hazard preparedness and response for daily practice of fire protection.

Key words ： Fire Risk Assessment, Fire Loss, Risk Zone, GIS