都市空間的火災風險推估

Spatial Estimation of Urban Fire Risk

吳榮平 1 、熊光華 2

1. 國立台北大學都市計劃研究所

2. 中央警察大學消防科學研究所、台北市政府消防局

摘要

    本文研究目的在描述都市火災的空間分佈型態，以台北市 1999 年到 2003 年間轄區內發生的全部火災紀錄為分析樣本，就鄰里與地區等空間單元中的空間特徵與社會人文環境，分析都市空間組構與火災災例分佈的空間關係。本研究將研究範圍放大到都市的空間向度，非僅只是傳統的火災研究，侷限於起火建築物本身或相關當事人等關係的探討。利用地理資訊系統的地址對位工具，建置所有火災災例的空間資料內容，再利用地理統計的空間推估模式，預測不同類型的火災風險空間分佈型態，從火災風險空間分佈的推估成果，探討空間組構及社會人文環境的差異，呈現不同的火災風險意象。

 關鍵字： 都市火災、火災風險、空間推估、地理資訊系統

Abstract

This study describes spatial patterns in the fire incidents of Taipei . The spatial relationship between urban spatial contexts and fire incidents is examined and applied to the City of Taipei from 1999 to 2003. It is argued that this method focuses attention on characteristics of neighborhoods and area, and not just on the building equipments or users. A method is described for examining spatial variations in fire incidents, aggregated into small geographical area. A Geo-statistical model is developed which examines the zonal relationship of fire incidents to socioeconomic characteristics. The predictors of incidents fluctuate according to different socioeconomic characteristics. The can generate expected incidents, allowing for an identification of areas which have higher than expected levels.

 Keywords: Urban Fire Incidents, Fire Risk, Spatial Estimation, GIS